MIAMI – The Heat enter the new season in a very unfamiliar position; coming off a non-playoff season.
It still feels odd even typing that sentence.
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Since Dwyane Wade came to town 13 years ago, this franchise has won three NBA titles and been in position to compete for many others.
You never want to give a team a "free pass" on a season, but last year really was a perfect storm of bad luck and bad decisions. Between personnel decisions that didn't pan out and injuries that never allowed the team to gel, it's not hard to figure out why Miami didn't make the playoffs.
Now begins a new season and a new chance to get things back to normal.
On paper, the Heat look like one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference. The starting five has the potential to be one of the more consistent units in the league. Of course, that only means so much, and the preseason didn't do much to make fans confident this group will be consistent from the start.
There's no sugarcoating it. The starting unit didn't look good in the preseason. Many of the players have said as much. Blame lack of comfort around each other, injuries and just flat out poor play, but this starting group is clearly a work in progress.
The good news is the talent and experience is there. Goran Dragic, Luol Deng, Chris Bosh and Wade are all proven NBA players. You know what you will get with them, so now it's just a matter of getting on the court and learning to play together with consistency. I don't think it's a stretch to have faith that will come.
Now notice the one name of the starters I didn't mention: Hassan Whiteside.
As unfair as it may seem to put all the pressure on such a young and unproven player, I think much of the Heat's upside will depend on how Whiteside plays. Or more importantly, how much he keeps his cool and can avoid some of the silly and immature things he did last season.
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Whiteside gives Miami something most teams won't be able to contend with night-in and night-out. A true center who can run the floor, rebound and defend. Think about that. The proven players I mentioned earlier with a dynamic center like Whiteside? The possibilities are exciting enough to have any Heat fan dreaming of contending for an Eastern Conference title.
To Whiteside's credit, he came to camp in great shape after an offseason of hard work, and he didn't pout during the preseason while he was injured. It's all set up for him to be a double-double machine. He just needs to keep his head on straight. The support system is there with the veteran players and a coaching staff that's always keeping an eye out on him.
The positive of the preseason was that the 2nd unit really played well. Again, it's hard to make too much of the preseason, but Josh McRoberts, Mario Chalmers and Gerald Green leading your back-up group is as nice option to have every night. While Amar'e Stoudemire and his health is something to monitor, I do think he will be a huge benefit off the bench when used properly. Plus, you still have the veteran size and toughness from Udonis Haslem and the Birdman, Chris Andersen.
Rookies Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson will also have a role with the team, in particular Winslow early on.
The good news for Winslow is that he won't be expected to be a factor every single night. Miami has the luxury of working him along the rotation and putting him in situations to play to his strengths. He's versatile and will only get better as time goes on.
It's all set up for the Heat to have a bounce back season, a playoff berth and possibly contend in the Eastern Conference.
How would it fail? Well, injuries are an obvious way. But, that's for any team. Maybe the Heat will be a bit more fragile because of so many veterans players on the roster, but head coach Erik Spoelstra knows how to deal with maintaining players. He's had plenty of experience.
Outside shooting is probably this team's biggest concern. Not only on the offensive side but defensively, as well.
Miami's perimeter defense was bad last season and must tighten up. Not shooting 3's well and having opposing teams knocking them down is a recipe for disaster.
The Heat have faith that Green will be able to knock down shots, along with Chalmers and Bosh. But, let's face it, Ray Allen isn't likely walking through that door (at least I don't think so.)
Miami will have to find ways to get good looks for the shooters and those shooters must known down shots.
The Heat must also play with more energy and urgency on defense. There's no doubt tempo and pace are what Spoelstra has stressed this season, and that goes for both offense and defense.
So, how good can the Heat be? I think the answer is very good. Good enough to compete in the East.
On the flip side you might ask how bad could they be? The reality is, if injuries and inconsistency become an issue, this could be a team that has to scrap and battle for a playoff spot.
My honest take is this team will be a Top 5 seed in the conference with the potential to really contend with anyone in the East.
But, that's the beauty of an 82 game season. We will soon find out.
Strap yourselves in and get ready to enjoy!