Overall, the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been relatively active so far with 14 tropical storms, eight of which have become hurricanes.
The National Hurricane Center is currently giving a tropical wave over the deep tropical Atlantic a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days. Even if this disturbance does develop, however, the computer models are in agreement that it will soon turn toward the north and northeast and stay well away from the U.S.
During the satellite era starting in 1966, the Atlantic Basin has averaged 1.8 tropical storms of which 1.0 became a hurricane during this month. During 2010, we saw five tropical storms form during October, and all five of them became hurricanes.
The graphic above shows the formation points of 288 tropical storms during the month of October from the NHC’s historical data set extending from 1851 to 2011. One of the preferred areas for development during October is over the western Caribbean Sea.
Tropical cyclones from this area often move northward with some of them moving over South Florida.
We need to remember the saying “October – Not Over.” The mainland counties in South Florida have actually had more hurricane strikes in October than during the months of September or August.