Possible tropical development in Caribbean next week

Published On: Oct 19 2012 06:58:11 PM EDT   Updated On: Oct 20 2012 01:18:08 AM EDT


I don’t get too excited when one computer model shows a low pressure system developing in the tropics. However, when all of the global computer models consistently agree that a low pressure system is going to develop, I start paying closer attention.

The green area in the graphic (below) centered just south of Jamaica, marks an area of low pressure forecast by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.


European model valid 8 am Wednesday October 24

This European model was initialized at 8:00 a.m. Friday for the verifying time of 8:00 a.m. Wednesday October 24. It is typically one of the better performing models. Other global models from Canada, the U.S. Navy and the U.S. National Weather Service forecast something similar.

Only time will tell if this low actually develops as forecast. If it does develop, the long-range models suggest that the most likely scenario at this time is for it to eventually move northward or northeastward.


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