PEMBROKE PARK, Fla. – Some may be wondering why the National Hurricane Center hasn't started calling the low pressure system east of the Florida coast a tropical cyclone. The definition of a tropical cyclone includes "organized deep convection and a closed-surface wind circulation about a well-defined center."
Surface reports from land stations, buoys and ships indicate a closed-surface wind circulation. Visible satellite imagery has been showing a well-defined center most of the day, and the U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters flying low transmitted a "vortex" message. Although the definition of "organized deep convection" is somewhat subjective, the NHC says that at this time, "The associated thunderstorm activity is just below the organizational threshold required to initiate tropical cyclone advisories."
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The NHC is still forecasting a high chance that a tropical depression will form. The important thing for South Florida is that this is not expected to be a significant wind event. However, regardless of when the system attains tropical cyclone status, it is expected to enhance rainfall at least through Tuesday, thanks in part to the slow motion of the disturbance.
The east coast metro areas of South Florida are included in the areas of potentially heavy rainfall and the threat of urban flooding. This threat will be heightened if rainbands associated with the slow-moving disturbance remain over the same areas for extended periods.