PEMBROKE PARK, Fla. – Here we are in the first week of the 2014 hurricane season, and the National Hurricane Center is already talking about potential tropical cyclone development.
Cloudiness and showers over much of the eastern Gulf of Mexico are associated with the interaction of a stationary surface trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level low. Fortunately, the upper-level winds are forecast to be relatively strong over the area where the surface pressure is lowest which should result in wind shear.
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At this time, any chance for development into a tropical cyclone is very low through this week.
However, the Gulf of Mexico is one of the preferred areas for development early in the season. The graphic shows the formation points of 89 tropical (and subtropical) storms that have formed in the month of June since 1851 and includes the two June tropical storms from 2013.
In addition to the Gulf of Mexico, other preferred regions this early in the season include the western Caribbean Sea and just off the southeast coast of the U.S.
Long-period records from the National Hurricane Center show that the month of June averages about one named storm every two years. This number has remained remarkably consistent throughout the reconnaissance era (starting in 1944) and the satellite era (starting in 1966).